Real Option Analysis of Solar Power Energy Grid Cost under Electricity Price Uncertainty

Hojeong Park; Heesun Jang; Jaehyung Lee

doi:10.32390/ksmer.2020.57.1.077

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2020 Vol.57, Issue 1 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Real Option Analysis of Solar Power Energy Grid Cost under Electricity Price Uncertainty 전력가격 불확실성을 고려한 태양광 발전 계통비용의 실물옵션 분석

29 February 2020. pp. 77-85

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Abstract

This study developed a real option approach to deriving grid cost that would enable a solar plant to secure economic feasibility through grid linkage. The proposed model showed two distinct electricity price cases that followed the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and gBm processes. The grid cost was calibrated under electricity price uncertainty via the use of real parameters from a solar power plant. We found that the grid cost of the solar power plant was less sensitive to power generation capacity, electricity price stochasticity, and power generation efficiency, whereas it was substantially affected by transmission investment cost. The calculated average grid cost was 0.55-0.56 won/kwh, which was consistent with that found by similar studies.

Keywords

Real option analysis

Electricity price uncertainty

Grid cost

solar power plant

Ornstein-uhlenbeck process

본 논문에서는 태양광 발전 사업자가 계통연계의 경제성을 확보할 수 있는 수준의 계통보강비용 도출을 위해 실물옵션 방법론을 사용하였다. 전력가격이 불확실한 상황을 가정하였으며, 전력가격은 OU 확률과정 및 gBm 확률과정을 따름을 가정하였다. 그리고 개발된 모형에 태양광 발전소의 실증값을 대입하여 전력가격 불확실성하에서의 계통비용을 추정하였다. 그 결과 태양광 발전의 계통비용은 시설규모, 전력 가격의 확률과정, 이용효율 등에 거의 영향을 받지 않으며, 평균적으로 0.55-0.56원/kwh인 것으로 나타났다.

키워드

실물옵션

전력가격 불확실성

계통비용

태양광 발전

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck 확률과정

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국자원공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국자원공학회지
Volume : 57
No :1
Pages :77-85
Received Date : 2020-02-03
Revised Date : 2020-02-13
Accepted Date : 2020-02-21
DOI :https://doi.org/10.32390/ksmer.2020.57.1.077

Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers ISSN:2288-0291(Print) 2288-2790(Online) 한국자원공학회지

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